Africa’s Smartphone Market Bounces Back, But 2025 Brings New Challenges

The latest Canalys, now part of Omdia, research reveals Africa’s smartphone shipments increased 9% year on year in 2024, signaling resilience amid global economy volatility. Recovery was driven by easing inflation which boosted purchasing power, vendors’ expansion into emerging markets and a replacement cycle following peak shipments during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Africa’s smartphone market reached a record high of 90.5 million units in 2021, which remains the highest annual shipment to date. Looking ahead, Africa presents strong market potential and long-term opportunities. However, in 2025, the region faces short-term macroeconomic strains, including persistently high inflation, currency depreciation risks and limited economic momentum. Canalys forecasts a modest 2% growth in Africa’s smartphone market in 2025.

African markets face mixed fortunes amid policy shifts and price pressures 

In Q4 2024, Nigeria’s smartphone market declined 1%, maintaining a 14% regional share, as rising living costs offset festive season gains. Looking ahead, 2025 may bring further strain, with telecom operators pushing a 100% tariff hike, potentially slowing demand as consumers grapple with higher data costs. Egypt maintained its growth momentum for the fourth consecutive quarter, recording 12% growth, driven by fiscal stability. In January 2025, the country imposed an import tax of up to 38.5% on imported mobile phones to boost local production and regulate imports, reinforcing the need for strong local manufacturing.

Algeria continued to benefit from post-2020 economic reforms, with the smartphone market growing 11% in Q4 2024. In contrast, Morocco’s smartphone market fell 34% in Q4, as vendors struggled to cope with higher customs duties introduced in early 2024, which increased prices, reduced consumer spending and led to delayed upgrades.

Kenya experienced a 4% decline in Q4 2024, as new regulations introduced in November mandate tax compliance verification before devices can connect to local networks. This has increased operational requirements for vendors and slowed short-term shipments. South Africa experienced a mild 1% drop in Q4, as improving economic conditions, lower interest rates and stronger consumer confidence supported the market’s recovery from a double-digit drop from last quarter.

The 49% year-on-year growth in the sub-US$100 price band in Q4 2024 highlights the growing financial strain on consumers. TRANSSION, while maintaining its leadership with a 49% market share, saw a modest 1% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 while facing the challenge of intensifying competition. TRANSSION is expanding into new product categories in the region like home appliances, though these have yet to make significant contributions to the vendor’s overall revenue. Samsung witnessed its shipments drop by 17%, but its ASP rose 9% to US$240, the highest among Android brands. The vendor is focused on strengthening its mid-premium segment (US$200 to US$600) by targeting urban, middle-class African consumers seeking status-symbol smartphones.

Meanwhile, Xiaomi surged 22%, thanks to aggressive market expansion in West African countries such as Cameroon and Ghana and year-end consumer engagement campaigns like the ‘Xiaomi Deals Carnival’ in Egypt and ‘Xiaomi Fans Meetup’ in Nigeria. realme achieved an impressive 70% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024, driven by market expansion in North and East Africa and the growth momentum of the new Note series last year. OPPO increased its investment in local production in Egypt and Turkey throughout 2024, demonstrating its commitment to long-term growth in the African market.

– Manish Pravinkumar, Senior Analyst, Canalys

Dynamic business environment ahead as market set for single-digit growth in 2025 

Canalys forecasts 2% growth in 2025 as Africa navigates economic complexities. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, Africa’s average inflation rate is expected to decline from 18.6% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2025 as per the African Development Bank. Ensuring mass-market products remain the core of competition in Africa. While maintaining price competitiveness, vendors and channels are leveraging device financing to enhance affordability. The dominance of open-market channels and entry-level products is expected to remain in the long term. However, Africa, as one of the most promising growth markets globally, also presents the most complex business environments, with challenges such as currency volatility, shifting tax policies and geopolitical risks, placing high demands on operational capabilities. Notably, the resilient business models developed by vendors in Africa—ranging from adapting to abrupt risks to deeply aligning with mass market needs—will serve as a replicable strategy for expansion in emerging markets.

– Manish Pravinkumar, Senior Analyst, Canalys