MTN Bets Big on Africa’s Connected Home to Power Next Decade

MTN Group has outlined its boldest strategy yet as it prepares for life beyond its Ambition 2025 plan. At an editors’ roundtable, CEO Ralph Mupita highlighted record-breaking results, a milestone 300 million subscriber base, and an ambitious roadmap built around consolidation, financial technology, and digital infrastructure — even as the company faces ongoing litigation and a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) probe.

Strongest Results in a Decade

Mupita said MTN’s first-half performance was the best in nearly 10 years, driven by Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda. “In the eight years I’ve been here, these are the best set of financial results that MTN has posted,” he said.

The Group has now surpassed 300 million subscribers, placing it among the world’s top 10 or 11 largest operators. “We ended June just under 298 million, and by the run rate of acquisitions, we’re at 300 million today,” Mupita confirmed.

While Nigeria stabilized after last year’s sharp devaluation of the naira and Ghana benefited from a strengthening cedi, South Africa has been tougher. “We’ve lost a bit of market share to Telkom, mostly. So we’re putting resources to fight back,” he said, signaling a more aggressive approach to win prepaid customers.

Consolidation is Coming

Mupita argued that Africa lags global peers in telecom consolidation but will inevitably follow the global trend. “The opportunity for consolidation in Africa is real. When you look at India, Europe, and the U.S., you see ‘two-and-a-half player’ markets. It creates stronger profit pools and attracts investment,” he said.

In Ghana, consolidation is already underway, while in South Africa speculation continues around MTN and Telkom. Mupita confirmed there are “no active discussions” but stopped short of ruling out future deals.

Fintech Spin-Off on the Horizon

MTN reaffirmed plans to structurally separate its fintech arm, with possible listings in Ghana and Uganda within three to five years. The unit, anchored by MTN Mobile Money, is now one of the Group’s fastest-growing businesses.

But Mupita cautioned that initial public offerings are not guaranteed shortcuts to value. “IPOs are not a panacea. Market conditions will dictate timing,” he said.

South Africa: Fibre, FWA, and MVNOs

MTN has ruled out building its own fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network, instead pursuing acquisitions or partnerships. “Committing significant capital to building our own FTTH network is off the table. It would be a poor allocation of capital,” Mupita said.

The focus will be on fixed wireless access (FWA) powered by 5G spectrum, as well as possible deals with fibre players if pricing aligns. On MVNOs, Mupita acknowledged tough competition, noting that MTN remains the largest enabler in South Africa but may adjust its approach.

Ghana: A Star Performer

Ghana has emerged as one of MTN’s strongest markets. With around 30 million subscribers and 70% market share, it now contributes more profit after tax than any other MTN market.

“We carry more traffic in Ghana than the whole of MTN South Africa,” Mupita said. He credited reforms such as the reduction of the e-levy, which has encouraged digital transactions, as well as President Mahama’s “24/7 digital economy” vision.

Litigation and DOJ Probe

Mupita also addressed legal challenges. On the long-running Turkcell case, South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal ruled the matter must be heard under Iranian law, prompting MTN to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

On the U.S. Department of Justice’s request for information, Mupita was clear: “MTN has not been accused of any wrongdoing. If we were a target, we would have been accused directly.” He stressed there are no financial claims, and cooperation is voluntary, limited to Afghanistan and Iran operations.

Beyond 2025: Three Core Platforms

MTN’s board has endorsed a “Beyond 2025” strategy to transform the Group into a holding company of three distinct platforms by 2030:

• Connectivity — mobile, FWA, and fibre-to-the-home.

• Fintech — moving beyond payments into full financial services.

• Digital infrastructure — including cloud, AI, and data centres.

“The opportunity in the home is enormous,” Mupita said, citing gaming, entertainment, and work-from-home demand. But affordability remains critical. “Getting smartphones to the $15–$20 price point is a big focus. At that point, you’ll see rapid diffusion of devices across African markets and then data will really explode,” he said.

Hyperscale, Edge Data Centres, and AI

MTN plans to lead in digital infrastructure with AI-grade hyperscale data centres and edge computing sites. Mupita predicted Africa will host only four to five hyperscale facilities in the near term. MTN already has a major site in Nigeria and plans to expand through partnerships rather than balance-sheet funding alone.

At the edge, MTN sees demand from enterprises such as banks where low latency is essential. “AI is transformational technology that will be pervasive. We just can’t get left behind,” Mupita said.

Satellites: A Supporting Role

MTN is also exploring low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite partnerships, with Zambia earmarked for trials. But Mupita insisted satellites will remain complementary. “By 2035, satellites will likely account for only 8% of data demand,” he said.

Despite regulatory headwinds and ongoing litigation, MTN remains upbeat. “The engine of growth for MTN is very, very strong,” Mupita said. With record financial results, 300 million subscribers, and a new focus on homes, fintech, and digital infrastructure, MTN is betting big on becoming Africa’s digital leader by 2030.