Mastercard Forecasts Robust 3.6% GDP Growth for Middle East and Africa in 2026

The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI)  has released its Economic Outlook 2026, projecting a resilient and favorable growth path for the Middle East and Africa (MEA). While global real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3.1%, the MENA region is set to outpace this average with a 3.6% year-on-year expansion. This growth is primarily fueled by aggressive structural reforms, targeted fiscal investments, and a significant acceleration in digital transformation that is helping the region navigate a landscape of increasing global fragmentation.

A defining feature of this outlook is the region’s rapid pivot toward high-tech infrastructure and artificial intelligence. According to the MEI’s new AI Enthusiasm Index, the Middle East is moving beyond the experimentation phase toward deep operational integration. This shift is most visible in the construction sector, where tech-related projects—such as data centers and electronic manufacturing units—now account for over 20% of total non-residential construction, up from just 2.3% a decade ago. Strategies like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s National Strategy for AI are cited as key catalysts that will support non-oil growth and long-term economic diversification.

For Africa, the 2026 outlook emphasizes a massive leap in digital inclusivity and consumer resilience. Mastercard expanded its acceptance network across the continent by 45% in 2025, laying the groundwork for a digital payments market projected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030. Consumer spending in major markets is expected to remain robust, with projected increases of 6% in Nigeria, 4% in Kenya, and 3.4% in Morocco. This surge is creating a fertile environment for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are increasingly using digital tools to streamline operations and compete in high-value services traditionally dominated by larger firms.

Despite these positive tailwinds, the report remains cautious about persistent risks. Khatija Haque, Chief Economist for EEMEA at MEI, noted that while easing financial conditions and US rate cuts will benefit oil exporters and spur demand in real estate and tourism, the region still faces threats from geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges. Furthermore, a divergence in inflation dynamics remains; while GCC inflation is expected to hold steady at 2%, oil-importing economies may face a slower disinflation path, averaging around 6.7%, which could continue to pressure household purchasing power.