Africa’s 5G market is entering a faster phase of growth. 

By the end of 2026, GSMA Intelligence latest report  expects the continent to have just under 100 million 5G connections, equivalent to 6.2% of total mobile connections. By 2030, that number is projected to exceed 380 million, taking 5G’s share to just over one-fifth of total connections. 

That would mark a significant change from today. As of May 2026, 61 operators across 37 African markets had launched commercial 5G, but adoption remains uneven. 5G accounts for only around 5% of Africa’s approximately 1.5 billion mobile connections, compared with a global average of 33%. 

The forecast is therefore about more than operators switching on 5G. It points to a market moving from initial network deployment towards broader consumer and enterprise adoption. 

But 5G will still be a minority technology by 2030, growing alongside a much larger 4G base. 

In this #TechTalkThursday, we examine what will drive the next 280 million-plus 5G connections, where that growth is likely to come from, and what it means for a market that will continue to depend heavily on 4G. 

From Smartphones to FWA: Where Africa’s Next 5G Connections Will Come From 

The scale of GSMA’s forecast depends on more than network availability. Africa already has dozens of commercial 5G networks, but turning coverage into connections requires compatible devices, sufficient spectrum and capacity, and enough demand to support continued investment. 

Several developments are pushing those conditions in the same direction. 

More affordable devices can widen the consumer market 

The average entry-level 5G smartphone in Africa still costs more than $100, above the monthly minimum wage in many markets. That limits the pace at which consumers can move from existing devices to 5G. 

GSMA points to several ways markets can lower that barrier, including device financing, reductions in device-related taxes and the removal of import duties. 

Kenya offers an early example. Its 5G connections grew 71.7% in the year to December 2025, reaching 1.74 million. GSMA attributes the increase to network expansion by Safaricom and Airtel, alongside the growing availability of more affordable 5G devices. 

As Craige Fleischer, Executive Vice President, Middle East Africa, at Trustonic, explains: 

“It is not about punishment, it is about enablement. What we are seeing is that financiers want to provide devices to consumers to enable these 320 million African adults to access the internet and smart technology. But there is no credit vetting. So how do they do this? We need to remove the risk for them, and that is where Trustonic comes into play. We provide locking technology that enables Android device locking for the market across the continent.”

 

Spectrum will shape where expansion can happen 

Network expansion also depends on access to suitable spectrum. 

As of May 2026, only 16 African countries had completed 5G spectrum assignments, representing less than 30% of countries on the continent. Much of the low-band spectrum that can help extend coverage and improve indoor penetration remains assigned to legacy 2G and 3G services. 

GSMA identifies mid-band spectrum, particularly around 3.5 GHz, as an important capacity layer for 5G, while low-band spectrum plays a larger role in wider coverage. 

The pace of 5G expansion will therefore differ across markets depending on when spectrum becomes available and how efficiently operators can deploy it. 

FWA gives operators another route into the market 

5G adoption is also extending beyond mobile handsets through fixed wireless access. 

Around 40 of Africa’s 61 commercial 5G networks offer FWA, and the continent had just under 1 million 5G FWA connections by mid-2026. GSMA expects that figure to exceed 3.5 million by 2030. 

The model is particularly relevant where fixed broadband infrastructure remains limited. Falling equipment costs are also helping, with entry-level 5G customer-premises equipment that once cost more than $200 now available for less than $80. 

For operators, FWA creates another way to use 5G capacity and reach households and businesses without relying entirely on fibre expansion. 

As Majda Lahlou Kassi, President of Ericsson Morocco and Vice President & Customer Unit Head, West and South Africa, puts it: 

“5G-powered fixed wireless access can bring really good connectivity and connection and broadband similar to what fiber will offer, but much cheaper.”

Enterprise deployments add another source of demand 

The enterprise market is smaller than consumer mobile, but 5G is already moving into specific industrial applications. 

Around 32 companies in Africa were procuring private-network equipment as of early 2025, representing about 21% of the global total. Activity was concentrated in South Africa, Nigeria and Angola, with deployments also emerging in Ghana. 

In South Africa, MTN, Huawei and China Telecom deployed a private 5G network for a manganese mine, supporting worker monitoring, vehicle tracking and autonomous trucks. In Morocco, 5G is being used for Industry 4.0 applications, including smart manufacturing and industrial connectivity. 

These applications give operators potential sources of 5G demand beyond consumer smartphone upgrades. 

Africa’s 5G Expansion Will Happen Alongside a Much Larger 4G Market 

A nearly fourfold increase in 5G connections can make the transition look like a straightforward replacement of 4G. GSMA’s breakdown tells a different story. 

By 2030, 5G will account for just over 20% of Africa’s mobile connections, meaning the majority will still run on other technologies, with 4G remaining the principal mobile platform for most users. 

Kenya already shows how the two technologies can grow at the same time. The country added around 730,000 5G connections in the year to December 2025, taking its total to 1.74 million. Over the same period, it added nearly 10 million 4G connections. 

The difference reflects the fact that African markets are still at different stages of mobile adoption. For some users, 4G remains the relevant upgrade because it is more widely available and supported by a larger installed base of affordable devices. For others, particularly higher-usage consumers and businesses, 5G offers additional capacity and performance. 

The operator response therefore cannot be a simple shift away from 4G. Both networks will continue to have distinct roles as the market expands. 

The Shift Will Change Where Operators Put Their Money 

The issue for operators is increasingly where additional 5G investment makes commercial sense. 

GSMA finds that operators are generally taking a targeted approach, concentrating deployment where demand and revenue potential are strongest rather than immediately pursuing broad nationwide coverage. These areas include major urban centres, FWA markets and industrial locations. 

That approach reflects the economics of deployment. Extending 5G into lower-density areas costs more, particularly where fibre backhaul and supporting infrastructure are limited. Operators can preserve capital by prioritising locations where higher usage, stronger ARPU or enterprise demand can support the investment. 

This creates several investment priorities: 

• Expand 5G where demand is already visible, particularly in major urban and commercial centres. 

• Use FWA to monetise 5G infrastructure where fixed broadband is limited. 

• Develop enterprise applications that can support higher-value private-network deployments. 

• Continue investing in 4G, which still serves the majority of mobile connections. 

• Extend coverage beyond the main centres as device affordability, infrastructure sharing and spectrum availability improve. 

Infrastructure sharing is also becoming relevant to the economics of wider deployment. GSMA points to tower and active-network sharing as ways operators can reduce the cost of extending coverage into lower-density areas. In Morocco, for example, Maroc Telecom and Inwi established joint ventures covering tower and fibre infrastructure, with plans for thousands of additional towers. 

The result is likely to be a more differentiated 5G market rather than a uniform continental rollout. Markets with stronger spectrum positions, device affordability and network economics can move faster, while others will continue to rely more heavily on targeted deployments. 

What The Next Four Years Will Depend On 

The GSMA forecast points to a substantial change in Africa’s mobile market, but not a wholesale technology replacement. 

More than 380 million 5G connections by 2030 would make 5G a much more important part of the continent’s connectivity infrastructure. But at just over 20% of total connections, it will still operate alongside a much larger base of 4G and other technologies. 

The significance of the forecast lies in the range of markets and uses that 5G can reach as deployment expands: smartphones, home broadband, businesses and industrial operations. 

Whether Africa reaches that trajectory will depend on the practical conditions shaping adoption now: timely spectrum availability, affordable devices, wider coverage and enough consumer and enterprise demand to support continued investment. GSMA also highlights the importance of cloud, edge and shared infrastructure in developing the wider 5G ecosystem. 

Africa is moving into a much larger 5G phase, but the transition will be gradual. By 2030, 5G should be significantly more important to the continent’s digital infrastructure while 4G continues to carry most mobile connections.